Some of you may be too young to remember, but back in the day Tom Bradley (the since-deceased, former longtime Los Angeles mayor whose airport's international terminal bears his name) was running for governor of California and up until the actual day of the election was so substantially ahead, according to polling data that newspapers called the election for him on election day morning--until he lost that night to George Deukmejian. That was 1982. And four years later, Bradley was again defeated in his gubernatorial bid. Still, some folks have expressed legitimate fears that perhaps 26 years later Barack Obama will suffer the same fate. Back then, race was thought to have been the factor in Bradley's sudden reversal of fortune -- that non-blacks told pollsters they intended to vote Bradley, but when it came time to cast actual votes, they went with Deukmejian. Will the effect named for Tom Bradley impact election day 22 days from now? Read what V. Lance Tarrance Jr., who was a pollster in Deukmejian's 1982 campaign, writes for the web site RealClearPolitics.
realclearpolitics.com
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